The future of a 45 MWdc solar photovoltaic power plant in the Philippines using technology forecasting by analogy / Ernesto H. Lozada, Jr.

Date : December 10, 2016
Number of Pages : 65 leaves
Adviser : Prof. Glen A. Imbang

Abstract

This paper analyses the potential and feasibility of a 45 MWdc Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Plant in the Philippines using the technique of technology forecasting by analogy, with Germany, being the pioneer and presently at the forefront of solar power generation, as the model situation. For the financial analysis of the project, two scenarios were considered : operation under the Feed-in-Tariff 2 (FIT 2, i.e. PhP 8.69/kWh of solar energy) of the Department of Energy (DOE) and without said government incentive but rather under a bilateral contract with an energy off-taker (bilateral contract price assumed to be PhP 5.5/kWh, which is the current average of energy spot market rates). The following dimensions were considered in making the technology forecast by analogy : technological, economic, managerial, political, social, intellectual and ecological. 

The implementation and commissioning of a 45 MWdc Solar PV Power Plant has been proposed which requires a land area of approximately 50 hectares. The cost of the associated dedicated point-to-point transmission line connecting the power plant to the Grid has also been taken into consideration. Based on financial analysis, the FIT scheme gave a Project IRR of 10.8%, Equity IRR of 15.2%, NPV of Php322,287,345, and Payback Period of 6 years.

Operation under a bilateral contract, assuming the same project FIT parameters except the price), resulted to Project IRR of 8.9%, Equity IRR of 10.1%, NPV of PhP92,456,352, and Payback Period of 6 Years.

Based on the analysis using technology forecasting by analogy, together with the supplementary financial analysis, it was concluded that the proposed 45 MWdc Solar PV Power Plant is both technically and commercially feasible, thus execution of said project is recommended.