Technology foresight on FNRI's developed stabilized brown rice utilization in the Philippines through Scenario Building / Jaypy S. De Juan

Year : 2014

Number of Pages : 89 leaves

Adviser : 

Executive Summary

Historically, Filipinos ate mostly brown rice until Westerners introduced the modern milling process that produced white polished rice which soon dominated the market and eventually changed our cultural tradition on rice preference. White rice is the most consumed form of rice based on the Food Consumption Data of the 7th National Nutrition Survey conducted by the Food and Nutrition Research Institute of the Department of Science and Technology. In 2010, the Philippines became the biggest net importer of rice - a far cry from when it was Asia's rice bowl. The ballooning population, rice wastage, and shrinking agricultural productivity are some of the factors which have brought this depressing state of affairs. Today, brown rice is gaining popularity primarily due to its nutritional and health benefits. It provides all the necessary carbohydrates requirements of an individual just like white rice. Its bran layer is a source of dietary fiber, minerals and B vitamins. Shifting to brown or unpolished rice, on top of more government investments in sustainable agriculture is one of the solutions to achieving rice self-sufficiency. However storage of brown rice is a major problem among rice miller due to unstable state within a month. In line with this, FNRI-DOST successfully determined in 2012 the optimum condition for extending the shelf-life of brown rice for more than a month using a modified process technology. With this the S&T solution offered by the FNRI-DOST, our rice producer may be more confident in supplying brown rice in the market knowing it can last longer. The FNRI-developed Stabilized Brown Rice (SBR) Technology is the subject of this special project wherein the researcher will undertake a foresight exercise using scenario building, defining the future situation that will facilitate the evolution from the original situation to the future situation of brown rice utilization in the country. This effort will create scenarios that will foresee the future situation affecting or influencing the utilization of stabilized brown rice in the country in 2020 (e.g. technology transfer and commercialization, policy and other drivers for utilization). This will also provide an overview of the challenges faced by the rice sector in cognizant with the DA's agenda for a rice self-sufficient country in 2013 and beyond. The study would like to answer the following problem : what is the future of the FNRI-developed Stabilized Brown Rice Utilization in the Philippines and what are the critical factors influencing / affecting brown rice utilization in 2020?

The report revealed the following results drawn from literature search, FGD, and scenario building exercise following the 10 stages in scenario planning strategy. The focal issues : rice importation, micronutrient deficiency, emerging health problem and rice sufficiency program triggers the development of FNRI-DOST Stabilized Brown Rice and the possible future utilization of this particular technology is in question. The key predictable variables & uncertainties : Ten (10) key predictable variables were identified such as : shelf-life, cost of technology, IP protection, possible adoptors, food safety, nutritional and health benefits, availability of materials, consumer acceptability, culture and quality, while, six (6) critical uncertainties were identified such as : patentability, government support, possible competitors, policy protection for producers, natural phenomenon, and rice innovation, which believed to influence the future of the stabilized brown rice. The possible adoptors: Two (2) possible adoptors signified intent to adopt the technology on the production of stabilized brown rice, governed with memorandum of agreement amongst the parties involved. These are the Nutrition and Beyond Corporation (NBC) in San Leonardo, Nueva Ecija and the Salignas Agri Farm in Leyte. Development of scenarios : Three different scenarios were developed and named as follows : Scenario 1 - The Dominant 3 (TSM) Influence 0 (high impact-low uncertainty) Scenario 2 - The Return of Brown Influence (medium impact & uncertainty) Scenario 3 - The Vague Influence - (high uncertainty - low impact) All the scenarios are considered as the influencing plausible scenarios that possibly occur for the SBR technology utilization by the year 2020. Implication of Scenario : Implication of the above three scenarios highlighted the key driving forces with different degree of impact and uncertainty which are highly influence by the determinants of utilization. These determinants evolved from the assessment of the scenario which believes to be the active agents or actors to push the utiization which can results to a favorable future for SBR utilization and commercialization. Now, the focus is how the determinants of utilization such as the institutes, the government, and the private sector (including the industry & rice sector) will strategically respond to the challenges and issues of technology utilization and commercialization to advance with the organization's objective and realized socio-economic benefit.